中国森林采伐限额与经济林种植的空间关联研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Economic forests are crucial sources of food and nutrition.To guarantee national grain and oil security,it is extremely important to investigate the spatial association between cutting quotas and the economic forest planting.The logging quota scheme increases uncertainty about the future benefits of forestry management.This limits the scale expansion of the timber forest planting industry and dampens the societal enthusiasm for economic forest planting.The severity of logging control in the northern China has been increasing from the standpoint of spatial distribution,which has caused the economic forest planting center of gravity to shift south.Economic forests can meet citizens'needs for wholesome food and ensure the safety of the nation's food supply under a favorable food outlook.The spatial correlation between the logging quota and economic forest plantations was examined using the centroid model based on data from the fourth to ninth national forest resource inventories.A spatial Dubin model was used to test the spatial spillover effects of logging quotas on economically important forest plantations.Additionally,two tasks were completed to guarantee the reliability of the estimation results.After variable replacement and first-order difference processing,a robustness test was conducted using a spatial Durbin model.The system of the GMM estimation endogeneity test came in second place.The findings indicated that the economic forest planting center primarily moved within the Henan Province,and that its overall migration distance was 235.13 km to the southwest.The ratio of the logging quota to forest stock shifted its center of gravity from Henan to Hubei Province and moved southwest across a migration distance of 300.4 km.The spatial separation of the two barycenters'was stable,but the consistency index fluctuated in an inverted U-shape,and the spatial coupling was typically high.At the regional level,the southwestern and southern forests exhibited considerable spatial-overlap and-coupling,whereas the northern forest experienced considerable fluctuations and an improved trend.The logging quotas and commercial forest planting have a spatial relationship.The two barycenters'local spatial patterns exhibited"high-high"and"low-low"agglomeration traits.The scale of economic forest planting has benefited spatially from logging quotas.In addition to encouraging the growth of the local economic forest planting scale,increasing the relative quantity of the logging quota was helpful in the growth of the economic forest planting scale in nearby areas.At the regional level,the southern forest area had a stronger and less pronounced spatial spillover effect than the northern forest area.The spatial spillover effect of the relaxation of the tending logging quota was obviously greater than the spatial spillover effect of the relaxation of the main logging quota,as seen from the perspective of the logging quota structure.This study enhances the theoretical justification for farmers'planting structure adjustment,in addition to resolving the problem of analyzing the trend of farmers'changing planting structures from a microscopic perspective.The conclusions of this study serve as a guide for improving the spatial layout of economic forest planting and the logging quota system.