热带气象学报2024，Vol.40Issue(4)：692-700,9.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.061
1980-2020年登陆中国热带气旋及其人口暴露度演变特征
Evolution Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Landed in China and Their Population Exposure from 1980 to 2020
摘要
Abstract
Tropical cyclones frequently occur in densely populated coastal areas of China,causing serious casualties.Based on the data of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific from 1980 to 2020,the present study analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the generation and landfall of tropical cyclones that landed in China.Combined with spatialized population data of China during the same period,sensitivity experiments were conducted to analyze the main influencing factors of the changes in tropical cyclone exposure and their respective contribution rate.The results show that:(1)From 1980 to 2020,a total of 1217 tropical cyclones were generated in the Northwestern Pacific,270 of which landed in China,and the frequency of cyclones generated and those landed in China showed a decreasing trend;among them,88 tropical cyclones of typhoon intensity or higher made landfall,showing a slowly increasing trend,and the frequency of strong typhoons increased significantly.(2)Tropical cyclones of typhoon intensity or higher mainly landed in Guangdong,Zhejiang,Hainan,Fujian,and Jiangsu provinces in descending order of landing frequency,while super typhoons concentrated in Guangdong,Zhejiang,Fujian,and Hainan provinces.(3)From 1980 to 2020,the total population exposed to tropical cyclones of typhoon intensity or higher in China was 3.58 billion,and the exposed population in 2016 was 250 million,the highest in history;the cumulative affected area during the same period was 9.5×106 km2,and Guangxi had the largest cumulative exposure area,2.1×106 km2.(4)The contribution rate of tropical cyclones to population exposure was the highest in all periods,exceeding 60%;it first increased and then decreased over the interdecadal time scale,reaching a peak of 80.3%during 2000-2009;the contribution rate of population and other factors showed synchronous changes(first decrease and then increase with time),and the increase in the contribution of population was greater.关键词
热带气旋/演变特征/人口暴露度/贡献率/西北太平洋Key words
tropical cyclone/evolution characteristics/population exposure/contribution rate/Northwestern Pacific分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨文丽,翟建青,赵庆庆,郭倩,姜彤..1980-2020年登陆中国热带气旋及其人口暴露度演变特征[J].热带气象学报,2024,40(4):692-700,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42071024、42271081)资助 （42071024、42271081）
