计及季节特性与日特性的多源-荷联合场景生成方法研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Scenario generation forms a foundation for the ap-plication of sequential Monte Carlo method in the field of reli-ability assessment for power systems with renewable energy.Traditional time series generation methods cannot reflect both the seasonal and diurnal variations of wind-irradiation-load simultaneously,and few studies account for the temporal cor-relation of wind-irradiation-load at the same time.In this paper,we divide a year into twelve segments and extract the seasonal and daily characteristics of the historical data by month.These data are utilized to form a weather-load characteristic paramet-er library,and thus a time series generative models is estab-lished based on ITO random process.The aforementioned basis leads to the generation of a multi-source-load joint scenario.The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed time series generation method effectively captures the seasonal and diurnal characteristics of wind-irradiation-load.The generated multi-source-load combined scene has higher accuracy in re-flecting the actual situation in a specific area.