基于概率最优潮流的电力系统灵活性量化评估方法OA北大核心CSTPCD

Given its fluctuation and stochasticity,renewable energy generation's high proportion to connect poses chal-lenges to the flexibility of the power system.For that reason,a quantitative assessment method of power system flexibility based on probabilistic optimal power flow was proposed.Firstly,the flexible resource models of the power system were constructed.Historical data was processed to generate scenari-os by using the k-means method,and the probabilistic models of wind power,photovoltaic power,and load fluctuation were constructed considering the time correlation based on the Markov chain model and the Copula function.Secondly,asso-ciating economic costs with system flexibility,quantitative as-sessment indicators that take into account the operational eco-nomy were established considering system flexibility margin expectations,vacancy expectations,and probability of deficien-cies.Thirdly,the probabilistic optimal power flow model with flexibility resources was constructed,and the system state and index were estimated by the Monte Carlo simulation method and tracking center trajectory interior point method.Finally,analyzing the case of the IEEE RTS-24 system show that the appropriate allocation of renewable energy and energy storage systems could improve system flexibility and operating eco-nomy.