考虑供能可靠性的综合能源系统双层容量配置优化OA北大核心CSTPCD

To effectively reduce the cost of comprehensive en-ergy system capacity allocation,a double-layer optimal alloca-tion algorithm considering reliability constraints was proposed.Firstly,based on the fundamental architecture of the integrated energy system,a double-layer capacity allocation optimization model was carried out,of which the upper layer was for capa-city allocation and the lower layer was for optimal operation.Secondly,a Markov two-state fault transition model using se-quential Monte Carlo method to extract equipment faults was added to this double-layer capacity allocation model to evalu-ate the reliability of the system,and the obtained results were taken as the reliability constraints of the system.Ultimately,the equipment capacity configuration of the comprehensive energy system satisfying the reliability constraint interval was output.The outcome demonstrates that the comprehensive energy sys-tem with multiple energy equipment not only facilitates the util-ization of new energy units and reduces the use of fossil energy,but also improves the reliability of the system.Synchronously,the study case compares the economy of system capacity alloc-ation under different energy supply reliability constraints and verifies the effectiveness of the proposed model.