云南水力发电2024，Vol.40Issue(9)：171-174,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-3951.2024.09.040
基于蝴蝶结模型的水库大坝安全风险分析方法
Risk Analysis Method for Reservoir Dam Safety Based on Bow-Tie Model
李剑萍 1曹登荣 1孙檀坚 2陈新根2
作者信息
- 1. 中国电建集团昆明勘测设计研究院有限公司,云南 昆明 650051
- 2. 中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,浙江 杭州 311122
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
China has the largest number of reservoir dams in the world.These dams play a very important role in flood control,water diversion,production capacity,and improvement of navigation conditions of river channels.At the same time,there is a potential threat of dam break.Once they are damaged,the consequences are very serious.The dam operation environment is complex,the causes of accidents are diverse,and the impact of accidents is large.At present,the commonly used fault tree method,event tree method,analytic hierarchy process and other methods are difficult to express the complex variables and structures visually.This paper introduces a new method-"Bow-tie Model",which can analyze the causes and consequences of the accident as a whole,and set up risk barriers on this basis,so as to achieve the purpose of risk management.关键词
蝴蝶结模型/大坝/安全风险分析/风险屏障Key words
Bow-tie Model/dam/sadety risk analysis/risk barrier分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李剑萍,曹登荣,孙檀坚,陈新根..基于蝴蝶结模型的水库大坝安全风险分析方法[J].云南水力发电,2024,40(9):171-174,4.
