边攻击策略下自建房火灾风险网络中边重要性及风险度研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

In order to reduce the occurrence of self-build housing fires in China,the accident cause"2-4"model(24Model)is used to analyze self-build housing fire accident cases,and 48 risk factors and events,as well as 128 risk transmission relationships,are encoded.A topology structure model of self-build housing fire risk network is constructed by using complex network theory,and the weight and betweenness characteristics of network edges are analyzed.Through simulation analysis of unilateral attack strategies and cumulative edge attack strategies,the changes in three network vulnerability evaluation indicators,namely the relative size of the maximum strongly connected subgraph,the relative size of the maximum weakly connected subgraph,and network efficiency,are obtained under different edge at-tack strategies.The vulnerability of the network is analyzed,and key links are obtained.An edge risk assessment model is introduced,the edge risk is analyzed,and chain breaking measures are proposed for the top 6 edges of risk.The re-sults show that under the unilateral attack strategy,the removal of edge with"lack of fire safety knowledge leading to weak fire safety awareness"and edge with"owner failure to implement fire safety main responsibility leading to failure to develop fire safety management system"can significantly reduce network connectivity and global network efficiency.When using the intentional attack(edge betweenness)strategy in the cumulative edge attack strategy,the network has high vulnerability,and the edges with higher edge betweenness ranking are more important and are key links in the net-work.It is possible to guide the fire safety management of self-build housing from different aspects based on the edge be-tweenness and the edge risk degree,providing reference for the fire safety management of self-build housing.