灾害学2024，Vol.39Issue(4)：108-114,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2024.04.016
我国冬油菜的气候灾损变化及其对ENSO响应
Changes of Climatic Disaster Losses of Winter Oilseed Rape in China and Its Responses to ENSO
摘要
Abstract
Constructing the possible relationship between the disaster losses of winter oilseed rape and ENSO events is beneficial for actively addressing the with the impact of climatic change on oil supply.Based on the yield sequence of winter oilseed rape in12 major producing provinces and cities from 1980 to 2019,the climate-induced reduction rate is extracted by H-P filtering,and then time series global principal component analysis is used to identify the decadal characteristics of climatic disaster losses.In addition,the influence of main meteorological di-sasters and different ENSO years on the climatic disaster losses of winter oilseed rape are arranged,and the indi-cating effects of 9 ENSO indices on the disaster loss years are discussed.The main results are as follows:①the re-gional balance of planting efficiency of winter oilseed rape showed a significant upward trend;②the climatic disas-ter losses of most provinces and cities had the higher intensity in the 1980s and 1990s;③frost and hail disasters had the more adverse impacts on winter oilseed rape cultivation;④the disaster losses in the years dominated by strong ENSO cold events were significantly higher;⑤the Classification models driven by variables such as Ex-treme Eastern Tropical Pacific SST had good predictive results for the years of disaster losses.关键词
气候灾损/冬油菜/ENSO/单产/H-P滤波Key words
climatic disaster losses/winter oilseed rape/ENSO/yield/H-P filtering分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
黄进,张方敏,胡正华..我国冬油菜的气候灾损变化及其对ENSO响应[J].灾害学,2024,39(4):108-114,7.基金项目
江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项资金前沿基础项目"江苏省农林生态系统碳汇的演化规律及调控机理"(BK20220017) （BK20220017）
