灾害学2024，Vol.39Issue(4)：179-184,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2024.04.026
基于集对分析和信息扩散的区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价与诊断
Evaluation and Diagnosis of Regional Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Based on Set Pair Analysis and Information Diffusion Theory
摘要
Abstract
Agricultural drought vulnerability assessment is an important basis for agricultural drought risk prevention and control.To explore the information carried by the index value of vulnerability assessment and accu-rately quantify the regional drought vulnerability,the calculation method of index value affiliation is improved based on the information diffusion theory,the correlation number between the sample index value and the evalua-tion grade standard is constructed,the grade eigenvalue method to determine the regional drought vulnerability level is used,and the development trend of the subsystem is analyzed by using the subtractive set.At the same time,the main inducing factors of agricultural drought vulnerability are identified,and a regional agricultural drought vulnerability assessment and diagnosis model based on set pair analysis and information diffusion is estab-lished,and the model is applied to Suzhou City,Anhui province.The results show that the evaluation level of agri-cultural drought vulnerability in Suzhou City from 2007 to 2017 varied around grade 2,with a medium degree in the year-round,the highest in 2007 and the lowest in 2017,with an overall downward trend.The exposure of agri-cultural drought has been significantly improved,the sensitivity of agricultural drought is reduced and the develop-ment is relatively slow,and the ability to prevent and mitigate agricultural drought has been improved,but it is still at a low level.The main inducing factors of agricultural drought vulnerability in Suzhou are:monitoring and early warning capacity,emergency watering capacity per unit area,ratio of agricultural GDP to regional gross do-mestic product,water-saving irrigation rate,replanting index,irrigation index,current water supply capacity per unit area,arable land rate,proportion of agricultural population,coefficient of reservoir storage capacity.The study can provide a basis for decision-making on regional agricultural drought risk prevention and control.关键词
农业旱灾/脆弱性评价/集对分析/信息扩散/减法集对势/宿州市Key words
agricultural drought/vulnerability assessment/set pair analysis/information diffusion/sub-traction set pair potential/Suzhou City分类
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韦亚龙,周玉良,周平,金菊良,张宇亮,李征..基于集对分析和信息扩散的区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价与诊断[J].灾害学,2024,39(4):179-184,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"多特征变量致灾因子条件下旱灾风险定量评估与调控"(52379006) （52379006）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"季风影响区域干旱分区与旱灾动态风险定量评估"(42271084) （42271084）
国家自然科学基金项目"汉江流域水资源可持续利用及其风险调控"(U2240223) （U2240223）
国家自然科学基金青年项目"基于地表水-地下水-作物耦合模型的区域农业干旱智能评估研究"(52209011) （52209011）
安徽省自然科学基金青年项目"耦合地表水、地下水和作物模型的农业干旱评估方法研究"(2208085QE179) （2208085QE179）
