灾害学2024，Vol.39Issue(4)：219-227,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2024.04.032
2020-2100年中国大陆沿海低地人口时空变化预测
Prediction of Spatial-temporal Changes of LECZ Population in Chinese Mainland from 2020 to 2100
摘要
Abstract
Low Elevation Coastal Zones(LECZ)are densely populated areas that are susceptible to natural fac-tors and human activities,with extremely high exposure risks.To cope with future environmental changes,it is cru-cial to obtain data on the spatial distribution of the future population in China's LECZ.Based on demographic and economic statistics and related geographical elements,the cohort-component projection method and regression analy-sis are exploited to predict the population size of 967 districts and counties in 11 coastal cities of China under different future scenarios.Combining the spatialization method proposed by Boke-Olén et al.,the predicted provincial popula-tion is allocated to spatially explicit population grids every ten years at 1 km resolution based on representative concen-tration pathway(RCP)land use data and historical population grids.The results show that:The LECZ population of China's 11 coastal provinces and cities under SSPs in 2100 ranges from 114 million to 177 million,showing a down-ward trend,but the population of large cities still retains a high proportion.The spatial distribution of the future popu-lation in the LECZ shows a decreasing spatial distribution pattern from the urban center to the periphery.关键词
未来预测/队列因素法/回归分析/沿海低地/人口空间化Key words
future projections/cohort-component projection method/regression analysis/LECZ/spatial-ization of population分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
钱静,杨续超,李飞翔,陈倩,乐成峰..2020-2100年中国大陆沿海低地人口时空变化预测[J].灾害学,2024,39(4):219-227,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"热岛缓解措施对城市热舒适度、空气质量的影响及其潜在健康效益评估"(41971019) （41971019）
