当代经济管理2024，Vol.46Issue(10)：76-87,12.DOI:10.13253/j.cnki.ddjjgl.2024.10.007
我国计划生育政策调整能否改变生育意愿?
Will the Adjustment of Our Family Planning Policy Change People's Fertility Intention?
摘要
Abstract
Regarding the impact of family planning policies on fertility intentions,previous studies have tended to address it from the perspective of sub-jective speculation.This paper advances the research on this topic in the field of demography based on quantitative studies.In this paper,the ideal number of children is used as an indicator of fertility intentions,and the mean analysis and panel linear difference-in-difference model are used to com-pare and analyze the fertility intentions of the same population before and after the introduction of the comprehensive two-child policy based on the fertil-ity policy to which the sample belongs.The results of the double difference model show that,affected by the adjustment of the comprehensive two-child policy,the fertility intention of women who originally belonged to the one-and-a-half-child policy increased by 0.164 children on average.This is relat-ed to the effect of the one-and-a-half-child policy women's demand for more children,and to the fact that the policy measures accompanying the com-prehensive two-child policy have lowered the economic cost of childbearing.The comprehensive two-child policy has not increased the fertility intentions of the rest of the population.Accordingly,it is recommended to focus on supporting the fertility of women who were originally part of the one-and-a-half-child policy,so as to facilitate the conversion of their fertility intentions into fertility realities.关键词
生育政策/生育意愿/理想子女数/面板线性双重差分模型Key words
family planning policy/fertility intention/ideal number of children/panel linear difference-in-difference model分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
梁同贵,李安琪..我国计划生育政策调整能否改变生育意愿?[J].当代经济管理,2024,46(10):76-87,12.基金项目
上海市哲学社会科学规划一般项目"三孩政策下上海市人口生育动态与响应对策研究"(2021BSH005). （2021BSH005）
