经济与管理研究2024，Vol.45Issue(10)：3-17,15.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2024.10.001
人口流入对地方政府债务的影响及空间效应
Impact of Population Inflow on Local Government Debt and Its Spatial Effects
摘要
Abstract
With the advancement of industrialization,informatization and agricultural modernization,numerous rural populations migrate to cities,forming a large-scale population inflow tide.Population inflow can solve the problem of labor shortage and promote the growth of regional fiscal revenue,yet it may also lead to local public service congestion or even shortage.Local government debt is an important source of funds to ensure urban infrastructure construction and public service supply.Against the background of tax and fee reduction,the change in regional population structure will alter the financial situation of the government.Therefore,for the sustained and stable development of the regional economy,it is vital to figure out and balance the relationship between economic growth brought by population inflow and fiscal expenditure pressure. This paper takes the data of 280 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2007 to 2018 as research samples.Then,it uses multiple methods to empirically examine the relationship between population inflow and local government debt from both ends of fiscal revenue and expenditure.The results show that the population inflow can inhibit the scale of local government debt.This conclusion is still robust after replacing variables and changing sample intervals.Furthermore,population inflow will affect both ends of fiscal revenue and expenditure through effects of fiscal revenue,economic agglomeration,and public goods,thereby affecting local governments'borrowing behavior.The regression results considering the spatial effect show that there is a spatial correlation of local government debt,and population inflow has a negative spillover effect on local government debt.Specifically,local population inflow will weaken the motivation of surrounding local governments to issue debt. The possible innovation of this paper lies in the following.First,this paper explores the mechanism of the impact of population inflow on local debt from the perspective of comprehensive fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure.Second,it empirically tests the above hypothesis by using the fixed-effect model and mechanism test method.Third,the spatial Durbin model is used to explore the spatial spillover effect of population inflow on local government debt.In order to effectively deal with the challenges and opportunities brought by this relationship,it is recommended that the government prudently borrow according to its factor endowment,promote the coordinated agglomeration of regional population and industries,optimize the supply level of public services according to the trend and characteristics of population flow,and ensure the utilization rate of local government debt funds.关键词
人口流入/地方政府债务/城投债/空间效应/公共服务Key words
population inflow/local government debt/urban investment debt/spatial effect/public service分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
黄春元,李媛钰..人口流入对地方政府债务的影响及空间效应[J].经济与管理研究,2024,45(10):3-17,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目"人口老龄化、人口流动与地方财政可持续性:理论与实证"(23FJYB031) （23FJYB031）
首都经济贸易大学青年学术创新团队项目(QNTD202104) （QNTD202104）
