实用临床医药杂志2024，Vol.28Issue(17)：27-34,40,9.DOI:10.7619/jcmp.20242402
中老年Ⅱ～Ⅲ期胃癌患者预后预测列线图模型的构建和验证
Establishment and verification of a prognostic Nomogram for middle-aged and elderly patients with stage Ⅱ to Ⅲ gastric cancer
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct and validate a Nomogram prediction model for overall survival(OS)in middle-aged and elderly patients with stage Ⅱ to Ⅲ gastric cancer.Methods The clinical,pathological,and follow-up data of middle-aged and elderly patients with stage Ⅱ to Ⅲ gastric cancer in the Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University,Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital,and Yangzhou City Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from March 1,2012 to December 1,2022 were retro-spectively analyzed.Based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,the independent risk factors for OS in middle-aged and elderly patients with stage Ⅱ to Ⅲ gastric cancer were identi-fied,and a Nomogram prediction model was further constructed and validated.The diagnostic perform-ance of the model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve,and the clinical effect of the model was assessed by decision curve analysis(DC A).Results A total of 382 patients were included.A total of 282 cases were as training sets and 100 cases were as validation sets.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that family history of gas-tric cancer,vascular invasion,nerve invasion,T stage,and N stage were independent risk factors for OS in middle-aged and elderly patients with stage Ⅱ to Ⅲ gastric cancer(P＜0.05).A prognostic Nomogram was constructed based on these variables,and the concordance index of the model in the training and validation sets was 0.667(95％CI,0.601 to 0.726)and 0.708(95％CI,0.622 to 0.766)respectively.The ROC curve indicated that the model had good predictive accuracy.The calibration curve showed that the predicted value of the model was in good agreement with the actual value.DC A demonstrated that the model had good clinical application and potential values.Con-clusion The Nomogram model for 1-,3-and 5-year OS in middle-aged and elderly patients with stage Ⅱ to Ⅲ gastric cancer constructed based on real-world big data in this study has an ideal pre-dictive effect,which can help clinicians effectively assess patients'prognosis.关键词
预测模型/胃癌/中老年人群/总生存期/真实世界研究Key words
prediction model/gastric cancer/middle-aged and elderly population/overall survival/real-world study分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
朱国玉,吴洋,秦陈,张晓春,李文骥..中老年Ⅱ～Ⅲ期胃癌患者预后预测列线图模型的构建和验证[J].实用临床医药杂志,2024,28(17):27-34,40,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(81973518) （81973518）
