化工环保2024，Vol.44Issue(5)：720-729,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1878.2024.05.017
基于多米诺效应的南京化工园区洪水Natech风险研究
Natech risk of flood in Nanjing Chemical Industrial Park based on domino effect
摘要
Abstract
A flood Natech risk assessment based on the domino effect was conducted in the context of"submerged"floods in the Nanjing Chemical Industrial Park.The results indicate that under the background of"submerged"floods,methanol storage tanks exhibit the highest probability of leakage in the park 3.89×10-3.This paper took methanol storage tanks T51 and T52 as research objects and evaluated risks of water pollution and vapor cloud explosion caused by methanol leakage.The results show that under the conditions of a methanol leakage rate of 0.62 kg/s and a methanol mass concentration boundary of 0.20 kg/m3,the maximun diffusion distance of methanol reaches up to 383.51 m downstream 1.00 h after the leakage;providing that 10%(φ)of the leaked methanol participates in the vapor cloud explosion,it is calculated that the leakage will be 100%fatal for the population within a distance of 140.02 m around the storage tank.In view of the domino effect,when a vapor cloud explosion occurs in storage tanks T51 and T52,the explosion overpressure received by the surrounding storage tanks T31-T50,T53 and T54 will exceed the failure threshold(0.03 MPa),which will further cause pollutant leakage and vapor cloud explosion accidents;after 1 h of the pollutant leakage,the pollutant will spread to a distance of approximately 400 m downstream,and the 100%lethal range of the vapor cloud explosion accident will extend to 377.78 m.关键词
洪水/Natech事故/多米诺/化工园区Key words
flood/Natech accident/domino/chemical industrial park分类
化学化工引用本文复制引用
倪平,高越,胡丽条,高鸣,马宗伟..基于多米诺效应的南京化工园区洪水Natech风险研究[J].化工环保,2024,44(5):720-729,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3205703) （2023YFC3205703）
国家自然科学基金项目(52170189 （）
71921003). （）
