水道港口2024，Vol.45Issue(4)：648-654,7.
基于系统动力学的自动化集装箱码头作业安全风险仿真分析
Simulation analysis of safety risk in automated container terminals operations based on system dynamics
摘要
Abstract
System dynamics was used to analyze the safety risks of quay crane loading and unloading operations in automated container terminals.The system dynamics model with 19 independent variables in four aspects,including intrinsic safety factors,environmental factors,system and network factors,and management factors,was established with the help of the traceability analysis of the accident tree.Five auxiliary variables,including mechanical maintenance correction coefficients and network security control measures correction coefficients,were identified according to the actual situation.Fuzzy judgment was used to determine the probability of occurrence of independent variables,and the mathematical expressions in the system dynamics model were determined according to the logical relationships among the variables.The influence of the current safety strategy on the overall accident probability was tested through model simulation.The research results can provide a reference for the calculation of the overall safety risk of automated container terminals.关键词
自动化集装箱码头/风险评估/系统动力学/安全风险/本质安全Key words
automated container terminals/risk assessment/system dynamics/safety risk/intrinsic safety分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
卢琳琳,黄文栋,詹水芬,胡艳华..基于系统动力学的自动化集装箱码头作业安全风险仿真分析[J].水道港口,2024,45(4):648-654,7.基金项目
交通运输行业重点科技项目(2022-ZD6-104) （2022-ZD6-104）
中央级公益性科研院所科研创新基金项目(TKS20230207,TKS20220308) （TKS20230207,TKS20220308）
