基于SPAMC-Methane模型的中国甲烷减排路径研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

As the second largest greenhouse gas after CO2 and the most important short-lived greenhouse gas,methane emission reduction has gradually become a consensus from scientific cognition to action,becoming the focus of global climate negotiations and the key area of international climate cooperation.In order to support China's methane emission reduction work,firstly,the global and China's methane emission trends,characteristics and existing emission reduction actions were compared and analyzed.Then,a methane model(SPAMC-Methane)on the basis of Strategy and Planning Assessment Model for Climate Change in China was established to analyze the methane emission trend,reduction potential and path of China from 2022 to 2060 under the baseline scenario,energy transformation scenario and methane low-emission scenario,with 2022 as the benchmark.The results show that the methane emission is expected to peak in 2032 at 75.80 Mt under the energy transformation scenario,and before 2025 at 70.60 Mt under the methane low-emission scenario.Under the methane low-emission scenario,the methane emission will decrease by 12.3%in 2035 and 53.7%in 2060 from the peak level.Compared with the baseline scenario,the emission reduction contribution of the energy transition and technology enhancement in 2060 are about 62.9%and 37.1%,respectively under the methane low-emission scenario,and about 77%of the emission reduction will come from the coal mining and solid waste treatment sectors.