气候变化研究进展2024，Vol.20Issue(5)：624-635,12.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.129
考虑气候风险耦合影响的中长期电力资源规划
Medium and long term power resource planning considering the coupled impact of climate risks
摘要
Abstract
It is very important and urgent to conduct a study on climate adaptation planning for power systems considering the impacts of climate risks on power supply and demand.In this study,a study was carried out on power system climate adaptation from a planning perspective:a medium and long term power resource planning model that considers the coupled impacts of climate risks was constructed to enhance the level of power system climate adaptation through the optimal allocation of power resources.The results show that the proportion of renewable energy generation in the planning scheme that considers the long-term climate change trend would increase despite the reduction of installed capacity,and the utilization level of renewable energy increases.The average annual construction investment would reduce.Under the planning scenario that considers the climate risk of extreme weather,the average annual installed capacity and generation capacity of controllable power sources would increase to support the integration of renewable energy and the safe and stable operation of power system,and the average annual generation capacity of renewable energy slightly decreases.And the average annual construction investment of the system would increase.The power planning scheme that takes into account the coupled impacts of climate risk can improve the utilization of renewable energy and system security in an integrated manner,and promote the high-quality development of renewable energy.关键词
气候风险/电源规划/气候适应性/极端天气/电力系统Key words
Climate risks/Power resource planning/Climate adaptation/Extreme weather/Power system引用本文复制引用
袁家海,牟琪林,张浩楠,赵艺莹,张健..考虑气候风险耦合影响的中长期电力资源规划[J].气候变化研究进展,2024,20(5):624-635,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173043) （72173043）
教育部人文社会科学研究后期资助项目(22JHQ096) （22JHQ096）
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(72303064) （72303064）
