水资源保护2024，Vol.40Issue(5)：39-45,61,8.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2024.05.005
基于CMIP6的气候变化下汉江流域气象干旱特征研究
CMIP6-based meteorological drought characteristic study under climate change in the Hanjiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
To clarify the impact of climate change on meteorological drought characteristics in the Hanjiang River Basin,10 climate models of CMIP6 were selected,considering historical scenario and four shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs).The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was calculated and variation of meteorological drought characteristics was studied.The results indicate that the maximum difference between the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the Hanjiang River Basin in the future gradually increases,with a growth rate ranging from 0.92 to 2.40 mm/a,while the minimum difference has different trends under different SSPs,with a relative decrease in SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios and a continuous increase in SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.In the historical scenario,the cumulative drought duration in a year is shorter in the east and west,but longer in the middle of the basin.In SSPs scenarios,the cumulative drought duration in a year is expected to decrease in the middle and lower reaches,but increase slightly in the upper reaches,and droughts are likely to occur earlier in a year.In the future,the intensity of drought with short return periods will not change significantly,but the intensity of extreme drought will increase substantially,with a growth rate of 7.1％to 25.6％for drought with a return period of 100 years.关键词
气候变化/干旱特征/CMIP6/标准化降水蒸散指数/汉江流域Key words
climate change/drought characteristics/CMIP6/standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index/Hanjiang River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王磊,曾思栋,阳林翰,黄珊珊,毛文耀,夏军..基于CMIP6的气候变化下汉江流域气象干旱特征研究[J].水资源保护,2024,40(5):39-45,61,8.基金项目
中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(2023-DFZD-44) （2023-DFZD-44）
