水资源保护2024，Vol.40Issue(5)：86-94,157,10.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2024.05.011
基于水代谢和水循环理论的石羊河流域水资源承载力评价
Water resources carrying capacity evaluation in the Shiyang River Basin based on theories of water metabolism and water cycle
摘要
Abstract
A water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system consisting of five subsystems,including input,consumption,vitality,regulation,and output,was constructed based on the theories of water metabolism and water cycle.The weights of different indicators were determined using the least squares method,together with the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method,and the water resources carrying capacity of the Shiyang River Basin was comprehensively evaluated using the variable fuzzy set model.The Gaussian mixture regression model was coupled with three interpretable machine learning methods to quantify the impact of each evaluation indicator on the water resources carrying capacity,and explore their relationships on both global and local scales.The results indicate that from 2011 to 2020,the water resources carrying capacity of the river basin showed an improving trend with fluctuation,but it was still on the verge of overload.The score of water resources carrying capacity increased from 3.79 in 2011 to 4.18 in 2013,and then decreased to 3.23 in 2020.The Gaussian mixture regression model performed well in handling high-dimensional and small-sample water resources carrying capacity indicator data.Indicators,including per-unit water consumption for agricultural irrigation,reuse rate of sewage treatment,water consumption rate of ecological environment,water resources development and utilization rate,water production modulus,and groundwater exploitation rate are the dominant factors restricting the water resource carrying capacity of the river basin.From a global perspective,there was a non-linear relationship between water resources carrying capacity and the dominant factors,and water resources carrying capacity changed non-monotonically with those indicators.From a local perspective,the dominant factors tended to inhibit water resource carrying capacity from 2011 to 2015,while they gradually shifted to promotion factors from 2016 to 2020.Although the water resource carrying capacity in the river basin has been improved,it is necessary to strengthen the management in water resources development and utilization and reduce groundwater extraction rate in future.关键词
水资源承载力/可变模糊集/高斯混合回归模型/水代谢和水循环理论/石羊河流域Key words
water resources carrying capacity/variable fuzzy set/Gaussian mixture regression model/theories of water metabolism and water cycle/Shiyang River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
贾玉博,杨宏伟,粟晓玲,褚江东,徐吉海..基于水代谢和水循环理论的石羊河流域水资源承载力评价[J].水资源保护,2024,40(5):86-94,157,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD1900501) （2022YFD1900501）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2023HHZX004) （2023HHZX004）
