刑事技术2024，Vol.49Issue(5)：441-455,15.DOI:10.16467/j.1008-3650.2024.0029
物证鉴定范式发展(二):贝叶斯似然比框架
Forensic Paradigm Development.Part 2:Bayesian Likelihood Ratio Framework
摘要
Abstract
The interpretation paradigm of forensic findings is undergoing a shift from the traditional paradigm of categorical conclusions to the likelihood ratio paradigm of forensic findings.The forensic likelihood ratio paradigm,DNA evidence as a typical one,has improved the validity of forensic opinions and transformed the reasoning and proof mode of forensic opinions.The forensic likelihood ratio paradigm is based on the Bayesian likelihood ratio framework.The likelihood ratio(LR)of the forensic findings is assigned under a pair of opposing source or active propositions advocated by the prosecution and defense,and the LR is used as the evidence value of forensic findings relatively supporting the propositions of both prosecution and defense parties.It provides LR opinions of forensic findings to help decision-makers infer and determine disputed propositional facts on the source or active level.The forensic likelihood ratio paradigm is completely different from traditional paradigms in terms of scientific basis,opinion formation,expression,understanding,and reasoning application,which poses new requirements and huge challenges for forensic examiner and decision-makers in criminal proceedings.关键词
物证鉴定/范式/概率/贝叶斯似然比/证据价值Key words
forensic science/paradigm/probability/Bayesian likelihood ratio/evidence value分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
王桂强..物证鉴定范式发展(二):贝叶斯似然比框架[J].刑事技术,2024,49(5):441-455,15.
