"双碳"目标下我国能源电力系统发展趋势分析:绿电替代与绿氢替代OA北大核心CSTPCD

The low-carbon transition of energy and power systems is the key to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets.In order to assess the future development trend of China's energy and power system under the targets,this study constructs a medium-and long-term energy and power development calculating model considering green electricity substitution and green hydrogen substitution.Based on the model,the development scenario of China's energy and power system from 2020 to 2060 is simulated,and the evolution trends of relevant core indicators are analyzed.Finally,for the coordinated development of green electricity,green hydrogen,and existing energy systems,this paper proposes the plans of integrated energy development models.The results indicate that the"dual substitution"of traditional fossil fuels with green electricity as the main source and green hydrogen as a supplement,will play a decisive role in the construction of new energy systems and new power systems.Through the analysis of the concept,structure and function of the integrated energy production unit(IEPU)at the supply side and the integrated energy production and consumption unit(IECU)at the end side,this paper provides a reference for the construction of new energy systems and new power systems.