浙江省丽水市森林碳汇时空演变及对极端降水的响应OA北大核心CSTPCD

[Objective]The objective is to simulate and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution trend of forest net ecosystem productivity(NEP)in Lishui City,and reveal its response mechanism to extreme precipitation,so as to provide data support for spatiotemporal assessment of forest carbon sink potential in Lishui.[Method]The spatiotemporal pattern of forest NEP in Lishui from 1979 to 2079 was simulated under three climate scenarios(RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5,and RCP 8.5)by integrating plot survey,remote sensing observation and InTEC model.The spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation were analyzed and a structural equation model was constructed to explore the impact of extreme precipitation on NEP.[Result](1)The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Lishui during 1979-2015 showed an increasing trend.In the future climate scenario(except RCP 2.6),the extreme precipitation,frequency and intensity of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 would continue to increase,with a higher trend of extreme precipitation events in areas such as Liandu District,Jinyun County and Jingning She Autonomous County.(2)Forest NEP showed an increasing trend from 1979 to 2015,with a growth rate of 20.18 g·m-2·a-1.From 2016 to 2079,forest NEP showed a downward trend under the three climate scenarios,but the total carbon sink showed an increasing trend,with the maximum NEP accumulation reaching 10.97 Pg.(3)From 1979 to 2015,extreme precipitation had positive effects on NEP,while it had negative impacts on NEP under the other two scenarios(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)during 2016-2079,except for RCP 2.6 scenario under which extreme precipitation had no significant effect on NEP.However,extreme precipitation under RCP 8.5 had less impact on NEP than that under RCP 4.5.[Conclusion]Forests in Lishui demonstrate strong carbon sink capacity,and have high carbon sink potential under future climate scenarios.However,the impact of extreme precipitation on NEP should not be ignored.[Ch,5 fig.22 ref.]