"一带一路"沿线粮食贸易的结构特征与影响因素OACHSSCDCSTPCD

Drawing on the grain import and export data of 68 countries/regions along the Belt and Road in 2022,a grain trade net-work was constructed,and then the product structure,network structure and the underlying influential factors were explored through so-cial network analysis and exponential random graph models.The results showed that:①The grain trade along the Belt and Road was dominated by wheat,rice,and corn.The top-3 grain importers were Turkey,mainland China,and Egypt.Egypt and Turkey depended on wheat import while mainland China relied on corn import.The top-3 grain exporters were India,Ukraine,and Russia with advantages in rice,corn,wheat export.Mainland China also had somewhat advantage in rice export.②The cores of the overall grain trade network were prominent and the communities were differentiated,forming China-Ukraine Eurasia community,South Asia and the Baltic community,Central Europe and the Balkans community,Central Asia community,and Caucasia and North Africa community.In the categorized grain trade networks,the trade networks of rice,maize and wheat showed dense flows and obvious clusters,the buckwheat trade network was clustering with low efficiency,whereas the trade networks of barley,oats,sorghum and rye were sparse,presenting strong territorial char-acteristics.③The grain trade along the Belt and Road was affected by local cultivated land resources,population,bilateral geographic distance,trade agreements,and grain trade structures.The trade mutuality,preferential attachment,and transitivity were also important driving forces.