干旱区研究2024，Vol.41Issue(10)：1719-1730,12.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2024.10.10
气候变化背景下白皮松在中国潜在适宜分布预测
Prediction of potential suitable distribution area of Pinus bungeana in China under the background of climate change
摘要
Abstract
This study was conducted to predict the distribution of potential suitable area and the impact of climate change and to determine the appropriate distribution range in the future,which could provide a reference for the protection of Pinus bungeana and its utilization in ecological engineering construction.Based on 83 wild distribu-tion sites of P.bungeana and climate factor data,the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the potential suitable zone distribution of P.bungeana under the present and three climate change scenarios(SSP126,SSP370,and SSP585)(2080-2100,low-level,medium-level,and high greenhouse gas emission scenar-ios).In the MaxEnt model simulation,the AUC(area value under the subject operating characteristic curve)was＞0.973,and the prediction results were highly accurate.Under the present climate conditions,the potential suitable areas of P.bungeana were primarily distributed in Shaanxi Province,southern Shanxi Province,southeastern Gan-su Province,northwestern Henan Province,and northwestern Hubei Province,with a total area of approximately 74.5×104 km2,under the background of future climate change.The core suitable distribution areas were reduced to different degrees,with temperature being the primary limiting factor for the distribution of the potential growth zones of P.bungeana.Under low and medium greenhouse gas emission scenarios,temperature still remained the limiting factor for the distribution of the potential growth zones of P.bungeana.Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario,the global temperature increased faster,and rainfall was the major limiting factor affecting the distribution of the suitable area of P.bungeana.The centroid of the suitable area of P.bungeana shifted eastward,especially being more sensitive under the high emission concentration of greenhouse gases,and the migration dis-tance was farther.This study proposes the protection of P.bungeana,and the results provide a reference for eco-logical engineering construction using P.bungeana.关键词
最大熵(MaxEnt)模型/白皮松/气候变化/潜在分布区/中国Key words
maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model/Pinus bungeana/climate change/potential distribution area/China引用本文复制引用
樊玉科,任菊,王润龙,周栋栋,潘自凯,张晓玮,周晓雷..气候变化背景下白皮松在中国潜在适宜分布预测[J].干旱区研究,2024,41(10):1719-1730,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(31860197) （31860197）
青藏高原东北边缘云冷杉火烧迹地森林演替动态及演替机理研究(03619078) （03619078）
