碳交易机制下林业碳汇交易的问题分析与思考OA北大核心CHSSCDCSTPCD

⑴ Background——Forest carbon sinks is essential to mitigate global climate change,protect biodiversity and promote sustainable development.Mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM),Verified Carbon Standard(VCS),Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries,plus the sus-tainable management of forests and the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks,and Chinese Certified Emission Reduction(CCER)have established markets that monetize the carbon sinks potential of forests.These mech-anisms incentivize forest conservation and sustainable management and reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.How-ever,opportunities for carbon sinks,particularly in non-CDM forest management,remain underexplored. ⑵ Methods——This paper firstly analyzed the ways and current situation of forestry carbon sinks entering into domestic and international carbon trading mechanisms.Three key aspects were then critically examined:ac-curate baseline identification,scientific measurement of additionality,and systematic carbon leakage accounting.These dimensions were analyzed through the comparison of different carbon trading mechanisms,highlighting the methodological variances and their impact on market credibility and effectiveness. ⑶ Results——This paper identifies significant challenges to incorporating non-CDM forest carbon sinks in-to current carbon trading schemes.The baseline setting of China's CCER mechanism is too simple,which may lead to inaccurate emission reduction estimates.The baseline is a critical reference point,so a flaw here could undermine the credibility of the mechanism.The Improved Forest Management(IFM)approach uses dynamic baselines from national inventories,but questions remain about its scientific robustness,indicating the need for more context-specific criteria.In addition,this paper reveals the inconsistency of emission reduction measure-ments between different mechanisms.The IFM approach relies on the biomass-based methods,while the CCER mechanism employs four different methods,leading to considerable differences in results.The diversity of approa-ches complicates the comparisons of projects and reduces the reliability of emission reduction claims.Finally,the failure of the CCER mechanism to account for leakage is particularly concerning,as it may lead to an overestima-tion of net carbon sinks,distorting the actual impact of projects on global carbon emissions. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——China's carbon trading mechanism is underdeveloped and inadequate to meet the growing demand for carbon credits.Incorporating non-CDM forest management carbon sinks into these mechanisms could significantly improve the valuation and monetization of these activities.However,improvements in baseline selection,additionality assessment,and leakage accounting are necessary.A more sophisticated and scientifically rigorous carbon trading system is essential to accurately assess forest carbon sinks and achieve long-term environmental goals.Therefore,the following methodological suggestions for forestry carbon sinks projects are proposed:First,improve the screening methods of carbon baseline,and adopt the dynamic carbon baseline setting method in combination with the inventory data of forest resources in China.Second,improve the measurement methods of additionality,and formulate detailed evaluation criteria of additionality according to different types of forestry carbon sinks projects.Third,unify the accounting methods for carbon storage.Based on the existing CCER methodology,a unified carbon storage accounting standard is established to reduce the differences between different accounting methods.Fourth,carry out a comprehensive carbon leakage risk assessment for forestry carbon sinks projects,and set a reasonable carbon leakage value according to the actual situation of different projects.