集体林权制度改革背景下农户商品林投保决策行为研究OA北大核心CHSSCDCSTPCD

⑴ Background——The reform of China's collective forest property rights system has increased the risks that individual farmers need to bear in forestry management,and also increased the demands of individual farm-ers to control and disperse forestry management risks.However,even with the continuous optimization of forest insurance guarantee level,the proportion of farmers'commercial forest insurance is still relatively low,which may not only restrict the release of the potential of China's forest insurance market,but also affect the moderni-zation and high-quality development of China's forestry industry. ⑵ Methods——The research data mainly came from the field survey carried out by the research group in 2018 and 2020,and a total of 2252 valid questionnaires were obtained.In this paper,the farmers'decisions of commercial forest insurance were selected as the explained variables,risk perception,insurance cognition,in-surance burden and forestland emotion were selected as the explanatory variables,and the farmers'personal characteristics,family management characteristics and market price characteristics were selected as the control variables.Based on the insurance demand theory of the decision-making process,this paper constructed a random effects Panel Probit model,and discussed the effects of different influencing factors in the decision-making process of the farmers'commercial forest insurance from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. ⑶Results——First,in terms of risk perception,when the farmers'perception of forestry management risk increases by 1%,their possibility of buying commercial forest insurance will increase by 26.7%,that is,the farmers with higher forest management risk perception are more likely to insure commercial forests.Second,in terms of insurance cognition,when the farmers'satisfaction with forest insurance and recognition of premium standard increase by 1%,their probability of buying commercial forest insurance will increase by 11%and 8.4%,respectively,indicating that higher insurance satisfaction and recognition of premium standard will pro-mote the farmers'commercial forest insurance behavior.Third,in terms of insurance burden,for every unit in-crease in household income of the farmers,the probability of the farmers buying commercial forest insurance will increase by 0.6%,that is,the farmers with high income are more likely to buy commercial forest insurance.Fourth,in terms of forestland emotion,every 1%increase in the farmers'dependence on forestland will increase the possibility of their buying commercial forest insurance by 3%,indicating that the higher the farmers'depend-ence on forestland,the more likely they are to make insurance decisions. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Based on the above research conclusions,the following policy sug-gestions are put forward:First,strengthen farmers'awareness of preventing forestry management risks and im-prove farmers'cognition of forest insurance.Second,increase the support for the purchase of commercial forest insurance,so as to reduce the burden of farmers participating in commercial forest insurance.Third,deepen the reform of forest property rights system and regulate market prices reasonably.Fourth,formulate differentiated for-est insurance policies to promote the diversified development of forest insurance.