农业展望2024，Vol.20Issue(8)：37-43,7.
2024年中国农业经济形势分析与未来10年展望
Analysis of China's Agricultural Economic Situation in 2024 and Outlook for the Next Decade
摘要
Abstract
Accurate analysis of China's agricultural economic situation is an important basis for judging the current and future agricultural development trends and the supply and demand relationship of agricultural products.By reviewing literature and conducting consultations and surveys,this article focused on domestic and foreign economic development and population changes,China's urbanization level,urban and rural residents'income and consumer prices,renminbi exchange rate and other macroeconomic and social conditions,and analyzed in detail the agricultural production conditions such as high-standard farmland construction,water resources,agricultural science and technology,and agricultural policies currently and in the future period.It also analyzed and forecasted the supply and demand situation of China's agricultural products in 2024 and the next 10 years from the four aspects of production,consumption,trade,and price.In terms of macroeconomic and social aspects,China's continued economic recovery at present and in the future will promote the high-quality development of agriculture,rural areas and farmers.The urbanization rate will continue to increase and the agricultural employment population decreases.However,the income of urban and rural residents will grow rapidly and the gap will continue to narrow.The renminbi exchange rate and consumer prices will run smoothly.In terms of agricultural production conditions,in the future,China will strictly adhere to the red line of cultivated land to ensure increasing the quantity and quality of cultivated land.The area of water-saving irrigation will be further expanded,and the utilization efficiency will continue to improve.Science and technology will help agricultural production efficiency and benefits continue to improve,and policies will continue to support the acceleration of agricultural power construction.In the next 10 years,in terms of production,China will further build a diversified food supply system,strengthen the material foundation of a strategy of sustainable farmland use and innovative application of agricultural technology to increase farmland productivity,implement actions to increase the production capacity of 100 billion kilograms of grain,and promote the improvement of the grain production system.Green transformation encourages grain loss reduction and food conservation to comprehensively ensure the stable production and supply of grain and important agricultural products.In terms of consumption,China will fully consider the changing trends in food consumption demand of urban and rural residents in the medium and long term,implement the concept of big food concept,continuously optimize the consumption structure of agricultural products,and pay more attention to food diversity and balanced diet.In terms of trade,as China's agricultural products improve their quality and efficiency,their international competitiveness will continue to increase,and the scale of agricultural product trade will continue to expand.In terms of price,China's agricultural product market price formation mechanism will continue to be improved.Through adjustments such as purchase and storage,production layout,and market pace,the ability to connect the production and marketing of agricultural products will be greatly improved,and the overall market price of domestic bulk agricultural products will be controllable.关键词
农业经济/中国/宏观经济/农业生产形势/农产品供需Key words
agricultural economy/China/macroeconomics/agricultural production situation/supply and demand of agricultural products引用本文复制引用
王禹,王盛威,许世卫,富丽莎,李干琼..2024年中国农业经济形势分析与未来10年展望[J].农业展望,2024,20(8):37-43,7.基金项目
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所2024年度科技创新工程任务书(CAAS-ASTIP-2024-AII) （CAAS-ASTIP-2024-AII）
2022年中国农业科学院农业信息研究所公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(JBYW-AII-2022-04) （JBYW-AII-2022-04）
中央农办农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题(0123043) （0123043）
国家重点研发计划课题"全国粮食生产综合智能化大数据平台研发及应用示范"(课题编号:2023YFD2000105) （课题编号:2023YFD2000105）
