农业展望2024，Vol.20Issue(8)：132-138,7.
东北三省粮食需求量预测与未来黑土地耕地质量提升思考
Research on the Prediction of Grain Demand in the Three Northeastern Provinces and Reflections on Improving the Quality of Black Soil in the Future
摘要
Abstract
Clarifying the future trend of grain demand in the three northeastern provinces has important guiding significance for ensuring national food safety,and the utilization and protection of black land resources in the three northeastern provinces.From the perspective of national food supply and demand balance,taking into account macroeconomic and agricultural production conditions,predicting and analyzing the food demand of Heilongjiang,Jilin,and Liaoning provinces from 2023 to 2032 can provide a basic basis for quantifying national food security and utilizing black land resources.According to the principle of grain supply and demand balance,a variety of agricultural product supply and demand prediction models based on deep learning were used to predict China's grain demand from 2023 to 2032 using LSTM(Long Short Term Memory Neural Network).This paper introduced the grain carrying capacity coefficients of Heilongjiang,Jilin,and Liaoning provinces,and calculated the grain demand of each province.With the development of social economy and population changes,the demand for grain in all three provinces of Northeast China will steadily increase in the next 10 years.Among them,the demand for rice will not change much,while the demand for corn and soybeans will increase significantly.In terms of corn demand,it is expected that by 2032,the demand for corn in Heilongjiang,Liaoning,and Jilin provinces will increase by 10.9%,23.2%,and 24.8%respectively compared to 2022.The growth rate of corn demand in Jilin and Liaoning provinces from 2023 to 2032 will be significantly higher than that in Heilongjiang province.In terms of soybean demand,it is expected that by 2032,the soybean demand in Heilongjiang,Liaoning,and Jilin provinces will increase by 47.7%,39.1%,and 34.8%respectively compared to 2022.Heilongjiang province will have the highest absolute and growth rate of soybean demand from 2023 to 2032.The future demand for grain in the three provinces of Northeast China is showing a growing trend,and the demand for corn and soybeans is expected to increase significantly due to the continuous changes in the structure of grain consumption.In the future,the three northeastern provinces should increase their grain yield through multiple means,based on protecting and improving the quality of black soil farmland,further build a national commodity grain production base,and provide a solid foundation for ensuring national food security.关键词
LSTM/粮食需求/东北三省/深度学习预测模型/粮食安全/黑土地保护/耕地质量Key words
LSTM/grain demand/three northeastern provinces/deep learning and prediction model/food security/black land protection/arable land quality引用本文复制引用
邸佳颖,王盛威,刘红芳,付海美,熊露,庄家煜,张淑香..东北三省粮食需求量预测与未来黑土地耕地质量提升思考[J].农业展望,2024,20(8):132-138,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划"黑土地保护与利用科技创新"重点专项课题"黑土地耕地质量清单制作与质量红线确定"(2021YFD15002005) （2021YFD15002005）
