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Spatiotemporal evolution and future simulation of land use/land cover in the Turpan-Hami Basin,ChinaOACSTPCD

中文摘要

The Turpan-Hami(Tuha)Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China,holds significant strategic importance as a key economic artery of the ancient Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative,necessitating a holistic understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/land cover(LULC)to foster sustainable planning that is tailored to the region''s unique resource endowments.However,existing LULC classification methods demonstrate inadequate accuracy,hindering effective regional planning.In this study,we established a two-level LULC classification system(8 primary types and 22 secondary types)for the Tuha Basin.By employing Landsat 5/7/8 imagery at 5-a intervals,we developed the LULC dataset of the Tuha Basin from 1990 to 2020,conducted the accuracy assessment and spatiotemporal evolution analysis,and simulated the future LULC under various scenarios via the Markov-Future Land Use Simulation(Markov-FLUS)model.The results revealed that the average overall accuracy values of our LULC dataset were 0.917 and 0.864 for the primary types and secondary types,respectively.Compared with the seven mainstream LULC products(GlobeLand30,Global 30-meter Land Cover with Fine Classification System(GLC_FCS30),Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring of Global Land Cover PLUS(FROM_GLC PLUS),ESA Global Land Cover(ESA_LC),Esri Land Cover(ESRI_LC),China Multi-Period Land Use Land Cover Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset(CNLUCC),and China Annual Land Cover Dataset(CLCD))in 2020,our LULC data exhibited dramatically elevated overall accuracy and provided more precise delineations for land features,thereby yielding high-quality data backups for land resource analyses within the basin.In 2020,unused land(78.0%of the study area)and grassland(18.6%)were the dominant LULC types of the basin;although cropland and construction land constituted less than 1.0%of the total area,they played a vital role in arid land development and primarily situated within oases that form the urban cores of the cities of Turpan and Hami.Between 1990 and 2020,cropland and construction land exhibited a rapid expansion,and the total area of water body decreased yet resurging after 2015 due to an increase in areas of reservoir and pond.In future scenario simulations,significant increases in areas of construction land and cropland are anticipated under the business-as-usual scenario,whereas the wetland area will decrease,suggesting the need for ecological attention under this development pathway.In contrast,the economic development scenario underscores the fast-paced expansion of construction land,primarily from the conversion of unused land,highlighting the significant developmental potential of unused land with a slowing increase in cropland.Special attention should thus be directed toward ecological and cropland protection during development.This study provides data supports and policy recommendations for the sustainable development goals of Tuha Basin and other similar arid areas.

CHEN Yiyang;ZHANG Li;YAN Min;WU Yin;DONG Yuqi;SHAO Wei;ZHANG Qinglan;

Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science,Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100094,China International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals,Beijing 100094,China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100094,ChinaKey Laboratory of Digital Earth Science,Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100094,China International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals,Beijing 100094,ChinaXinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Natural Resources Planning and Research Institute,Urumqi 830011,ChinaKey Laboratory of Digital Earth Science,Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100094,China School of Geomatics and Marine Information,Jiangsu Ocean University,Lianyungang 222001,ChinaKey Laboratory of Digital Earth Science,Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100094,China College of Geomatics and Geoinformation,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541004,China

农业科学

land use/land cover(LULC)future simulationmanual interpretationMarkov-Future Land Use Simulation(Markov-FLUS)modelTurpan-Hami(Tuha)BasinXinjiang

《Journal of Arid Land》 2024 (010)

P.1303-1326 / 24

This work was supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program(2022xjkk1100)and the Tianchi Talent Project.

10.1007/s40333-024-0086-z

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