干旱区地理2024，Vol.47Issue(10)：1628-1639,12.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.178
昆仑山北坡冰川湖变化及其溃决风险评估
Changes in glacial lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains and assessment of their outburst risks
摘要
Abstract
The exploration of spatiotemporal changes in glacial lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains and the risk assessment of glacier lake outburst floods(GLOF)are of great significance for regional water re-source security and ecological development.Using the Google Earth Engine(GEE)remote sensing platform,this study analyzed changes in glacial lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains over the past 30 years and ap-plied a GLOF risk assessment model to evaluate current moraine lakes for disaster risk.The results indicate the following:(1)From 1990 to 2023,the number and area of glacial lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Moun-tains increased significantly.By 2023,the number of glacial lakes had risen to 925,marking a 2.73-fold increase from 248 in 1990.Similarly,the area of glacial lakes expanded to 54.83 km2,a 2.66-fold increase from 14.99 km2 in 1990.This growth was particularly notable in the high-altitude mountainous regions of the western part of the northern slope.(2)The 2023 GLOF risk assessment indicates that the Yarkant River Basin poses the highest disas-ter risk,accounting for approximately 47.2%of the assessed area,followed by the Hotan River Basin at 15.7%.In terms of risk levels,the Yarkant River Basin shows a relatively high-risk,accounting for about 50.8%,and high-risk glacial lakes in the Yarkant River Basin glacial lakes account for 60.7%of the high-risk glacial lakes on the entire northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains.(3)The increasing trend in glacial lakes from 1990 to 2023 is closely related to regional climate change.Rising temperatures have led to increased precipitation in mountainous areas and accelerated the melting of glaciers and snow,which are the primary drivers of glacial lake expansion.The GLOF risk assessment contributes to the sustainable management of water resources in arid regions and pro-vides a scientific basis for disaster prevention and early warning systems in downstream areas.关键词
冰川湖/溃决洪水灾害/风险评估/昆仑山北坡Key words
glacial lakes/outburst flood disaster/risk assessment/northern slope of Kunlun Mountains引用本文复制引用
陈满,陈亚宁,方功焕,李玉朋,孙慧兰..昆仑山北坡冰川湖变化及其溃决风险评估[J].干旱区地理,2024,47(10):1628-1639,12.基金项目
第三次新疆科学考察——昆仑山北坡水资源潜力及利用途径科学考察项目(2021xjkk0100)资助 （2021xjkk0100）
