国际石油经济2024，Vol.32Issue(10)：22-28,72,8.
缅甸政局危机长期化下中缅油气管道面临的社会安全风险分析
Social security of China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline under prolonged political crisis in Myanmar
摘要
Abstract
Since the Myanmar's military came to power in 2021,especially after the intensification of local armed conflict among Myanmar's ethnic groups in October 2023,the crisis has gradually evolved into a prolonged period,making the social security situation facing the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline increasingly serious.It will be difficult for Myanmar to transition and return to normalcy in the next 3-5 years.Conflicts will continue in areas along the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline route,it is struggling to establish a reliable environment for the project in the EAO-controlled areas,and U.S.and EU economic sanctions and political involvement in Myanmar will continue to affect the domestic and international legitimacy of the central government's administration and management of the project.The social security risks of the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline have been gradually structured,mainly reflecting rioting of social group events,the network of illegal crimes,and the informalization of social security management.In the future,Chinese project stakeholders should work out contingency plans at different levels based on Myanmar's political changes and the strategy of the Southwest Energy Corridor.关键词
缅甸政局危机/中缅油气管道/社会安全风险Key words
Myanmar political crisis/China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline projects/social security risks分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张添,张海波,翟崑..缅甸政局危机长期化下中缅油气管道面临的社会安全风险分析[J].国际石油经济,2024,32(10):22-28,72,8.基金项目
本文是国家社科青年基金"东南亚国家代际政治对我国周边安全影响及对策研究"(23CGJ042)阶段性成果,同时是教育部高校国别和区域研究2023年课题"缅甸政治乱局发展趋势及我对策研究"(2023-N08)支持下的阶段性成果. （23CGJ042）
