南方电网技术2024，Vol.18Issue(10)：151-160,10.DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2024.10.015
考虑城市空间结构和用户有限理性的电动汽车快充负荷预测
Fast Charging Load Forecasting of Electric Vehicles Considering Urban Spatial Structure and User's Bounded Rationality
摘要
Abstract
At present,the researchs on electric vehicle load prediction are mostly divided by functional areas in space,and the influ-ences of complex spatial forms are rarely considered.So a fast charging load forecast method is proposed for electric vehicles considering urban spatial structure.Firstly,according to the urban road and points of interest(POI)data,the kernel density analysis method is used to determine the urban spatial structure,and the actual electric vehicle travel chain law is simulated by combining the central land theory and the improved gravity model.Then,the flow-speed-power consumption model of real-time traffic flow is constructed in the urban road network.Subsequently,considering the influence of subjective factors of decision-makers,the adsorp-tion model is used to give the user's limited rational decision-making method.Finally,taking the actual spatial data of a city as an example,the Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the temporal and spatial distribution map of fast charging load in the region,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.关键词
负荷预测/空间结构/POI/有限理性/电动汽车Key words
load forecasting/spatial structure/POI/bounded rationality/electric vehicle分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
屈克庆,赵登辉,毛玲,赵晋斌,杨钏..考虑城市空间结构和用户有限理性的电动汽车快充负荷预测[J].南方电网技术,2024,18(10):151-160,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52177184). Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52177184). （52177184）
