全球能源互联网2024，Vol.7Issue(6)：629-639,11.DOI:10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2024.06.003
碳达峰碳中和目标下中国经济产业发展研究
Research on the Development of China's Economic Industry under the Goal of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality
摘要
Abstract
Realizing carbon peak and carbon neutrality involves extensive and profound economic and social systemic changes.This study constructs an economy,energy and environment computable general equilibrium(3E-CGE)model and sets up three policy simulation schemes after carbon peak,including"concave"emission reduction path,"convex"emission reduction path,and"linear"emission reduction path,to reveal the changing trends of China's economic,social,and industrial development under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Research shows that,firstly,when the"convex"carbon reduction path of slow first and fast later is adopted,the cumulative GDP loss from 2020 to 2060(compared to the business as usual scenario)is the smallest,about 2.5％.The carbon price(marginal emission reduction cost)in 2060 will exceed 2,800 yuan/ton.Secondly,under the constraint of the carbon neutrality goal,by 2060,the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach more than 80％,and the proportion of non-fossil energy in power generation will reach more than 90％.Thirdly,emission reduction in energy intensive industries such as chemical,building materials,steel,and non-ferrous metals plays an important role in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Accelerating the withdrawal of fossil energy and increasing the proportion of clean electricity in energy consumption are important ways to reduce emissions in these industries.According to research findings,it is recommended to set clear emission reduction targets for the whole society and various industries,formulate a reasonable timetable for emission reductions,and clarify the phased goals of gradually achieving carbon neutrality;accelerate the construction of a new type of energy system and power system,promote the large-scale development of renewable energy,and realize the deep substitution of clean energy for fossil energy;formulate specific plans for achieving carbon neutrality in key industries,promote the coordinated transformation of energy and industry,and accelerate the improvement of electrification levels.关键词
碳达峰/碳中和/经济转型/CGE模型Key words
carbon peak/carbon neutrality/economic transformation/CGE model分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
李梦宇,王健,田野..碳达峰碳中和目标下中国经济产业发展研究[J].全球能源互联网,2024,7(6):629-639,11.基金项目
全球能源互联网集团有限公司科技项目"双碳目标下我国经济社会和产业发展系统评估模型研究"(SGGEIG00JYJS2200032).Science and Technology Project of Global Energy Interconnection Group Co.,Ltd"Research on the Evaluation Model of China's Economic,Social and Industrial Development System under the Dual Carbon Target"(SGGEIG00JYJS2200032). （SGGEIG00JYJS2200032）
