全球能源互联网2024，Vol.7Issue(6)：640-649,10.DOI:10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2024.06.004
"双碳"目标下中国建筑部门能源转型模拟
Modelling Energy Transition of China's Building Sector under the Dual-carbon Goal
摘要
Abstract
As the energy demand of China's building sector continues to grow,the low-carbon energy transition of the building sector faces challenges under the dual-carbon goal.This study implements a localized representation and refinement of China's building sector within the Global Change Analysis Model(GCAM)to simulate its energy transition and carbon emissions pathways under the dual-carbon goal.The results show that:(1)energy consumption in China's building sector continues to grow in the near term,with the growth rate gradually slowing down to saturation after 2030;(2)coal is almost completely phased out from China's building energy use in 2050,and natural gas is a transitional energy source,while electricity and renewable energy continue to grow,with the two supplying 23％and 64％of the energy consumption in China's building sector in 2060,respectively;and(3)the rapid promotion of electrification and renewable energy applications is the guarantee for China's building sector to achieve near-zero carbon emissions,while negative carbon emissions from energy conversion sectors such as power generation are the key for China's building sector to ultimately achieve net-zero carbon emissions.关键词
中国建筑部门/"双碳"目标/综合评估模型/电气化/可再生能源Key words
China's building sector/dual-carbon goal/integrated assessment model/electrification/renewable energy分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
邵天铭,王利宁,高鑫,潘勋章.."双碳"目标下中国建筑部门能源转型模拟[J].全球能源互联网,2024,7(6):640-649,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFB1903100).National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFB1903100). （2022YFB1903100）
