全球能源互联网2024，Vol.7Issue(6)：715-725,11.DOI:10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2024.06.011
考虑气温因素影响的中长期负荷场景生成方法
Scenario Generation Method of Medium-and Long-term Load Series Considering Meteorological Factors
摘要
Abstract
Scenario generation of load series is an important basis for medium-and long-term power system planning.As the generated scenarios based on historical data could not represent the future development trend of power load adequately,this paper proposes a new scenario generation method of medium-and long-term load series considering the influence of meteorological factors.Firstly,the annual load series is divided into several subsequences based on the seasonal characteristics and correlation analysis.For meteorologically sensitive load,the total load is divided into base load and temperature-related load using the load decomposition theory.Peaks and curves of temperature-related load are modeled and then superimposed onto the base load to obtain the daily load series scenarios.For non-meteorologically sensitive load,the load scenarios are generated through a joint probability model of daily load characteristic indicators and an optimization model.The case study is conducted based on the annual load data of several provincial power grids in China which verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.关键词
场景生成/负荷序列/温变负荷/回归分析Key words
scenario generation/load series/temperature-related load/regression analysis分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
田云峰,徐曼,师雨菲,乔颖,吴林林..考虑气温因素影响的中长期负荷场景生成方法[J].全球能源互联网,2024,7(6):715-725,11.基金项目
华北电力科学研究院有限责任公司科技项目(KJZ2022060).Science and Technology Program of North China Electric Power Research Institute Co.,Ltd.(KJZ2022060). （KJZ2022060）
