气象科学2024，Vol.44Issue(5)：890-898,9.DOI:10.12306/2022jms.0019
广东前汛期连续暴雨的天气概念模型
The weather conceptual model for continuous torrential rain in the first rainy season in Guangdong
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily precipitation data of 86 stations in Guangdong Province and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2019,the characteristics of continuous torrential rain in the first rainy season in Guangdong were analyzed,and the weather conceptual model was established based on three conditions:circulation in middle-low latitudes at 500 hPa,u-wind and v-wind at 850 hPa and divergence in high-low levels.Results show that:(1)the proportion of continuous torrential rain process in Guangdong in April,May and June is 12.0％,38.9％and 49.1％,respectively.The process mainly occurr in May to June.(2)There are 102 processes of continuous torrential rain matching the conceptual model through examining 108 historical processes,and the confidence rate is 94.4％.The continuous torrential rain process from June 5 to 9,2020 is accurately forecasted by using the conceptual model,which shows that it has good forecasting ability.关键词
广东/连续暴雨/天气概念模型Key words
Guangdong/continuous torrential rain/the weather conceptual model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
于玲玲,麦健华,纪忠萍..广东前汛期连续暴雨的天气概念模型[J].气象科学,2024,44(5):890-898,9.基金项目
国家重点研究发展计划项目(2018YFC1505806) （2018YFC1505806）
气象预报业务关键技术发展专项子项目(YBGJXM(2020)4A-05) （YBGJXM(2020）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z010) （CXFZ2021Z010）
广东省气象局揭榜挂帅项目(GRMCGS202101) （GRMCGS202101）
广东省气象局科学研究项目(GRMC2021M06) （GRMC2021M06）
