人口与经济Issue(6)：26-40,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2024.00.042
城市不同教育层级女性生育意愿的内部差异及其变迁(2010-2021)
Internal Differences and Changing Trends in Fertility Intention among Urban Women at Different Education Levels(2010-2021)
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,China's fertility rate has continued to decline,and the population has begun to show negative growth dominated by fertility,which has attracted widespread attention.Analyzing the overall characteristics,internal differences and changing trends of the fertility intentions of urban women of childbearing age plays a leading role in understanding China's future fertility situation.According to existing research,whether the changing trends in fertility intentions among women at different education levels are more converging or more diverging remains to be further explored.Based on pooled data of the 7th Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS 2010-2021),using the age-period-cohort model,this paper discusses the changing trend of fertility intention of urban women of childbearing age with the increase of age,the passage of time and the change of generations,and compares the changing difference among education levels.The results show that urban women's fertility intention is mainly affected by period change and cohort replacement.Women's overall fertility intention shows a downward trend over time.The fertility intention of women born after 1995 has dropped significantly.Moreover,different educational groups have great differences in the mode of change.From the perspective of period effect,the fertility intention of the group with college education or above has decreased significantly since 2017.The generation effect of fertility intention of high school and technical secondary education groups fluctuates greatly.Future public policies should pay more attention to the reproductive intention of women with higher education,noting that the continuous expansion of education may lead to a further decline in the reproductive intention of the new generation of higher education groups.关键词
生育意愿/教育层级/年龄/时期/队列Key words
fertility intention/educational levels/age/period/cohort分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
赵凤,陈李伟,胡安宁..城市不同教育层级女性生育意愿的内部差异及其变迁(2010-2021)[J].人口与经济,2024,(6):26-40,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"女性权利意识影响生育行为的机制研究"(23BSH154). （23BSH154）
