人口与经济Issue(6)：41-53,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2024.00.052
托幼一体化背景下普惠托育供需预测及保障路径探讨
The Supply and Demand Forecast of Inclusive Childcare and the Discussion on Guarantee Path under the Background of Integrating Childcare with Kindergarten:Based on the Study in Beijing
摘要
Abstract
The continuing decline in the size of the birth population has led to the closure of many kindergartens across the country,which results in kindergarten teachers switching careers.At the same time,the shortage of inclusive childcare places has contributed to a low level of childcare enrollment rate of families with infants and toddlers,although they have a strong desire to enroll in such childcare services.Theoretically,achieving the integration of childcare and kindergarten by implementing kindergarten-run-childcare can not only effectively use unused preschool education places to increase the supply of inclusive childcare places,but also digest excess preschool education capacity with maximum efficiency.However,in practice,how many unused preschool education places can be released by inclusive kindergartens and whether they can fill the gap between supply and demand of inclusive childcare still need to be tested.Based on the data from the Sixth and the Seventh Population Census,taking Beijing as an example,this paper uses the cohort component method to forecast the size of preschool population from 2024 to 2050,to estimate the supply-demand gap and to explore the guarantee path for inclusive childcare.The results show that the demand for inclusive childcare will grow strongly and the gap between the supply and demand will expand continually in the future,but unused preschool education places of inclusive kindergartens will increase year by year.It is found that encouraging the kindergarten-run-childcare can effectively make up for the shortage of inclusive childcare places,in which inclusive kindergartens can satisfy the demand for inclusive childcare as long as the former can reasonably convert 10%of the unused preschool education places.In order to promote the integration of childcare and kindergarten,this paper proposes to clarify the division of responsibilities between the education and health departments at the municipal and district levels,to relax the market price limit appropriately and give inclusive kindergartens the freedom to set prices to ensure the institutions'financial sustainability,to focus on the top-level design,strengthen the teachers'training and meet the families'diversified demands,and to enhance the fixed cost accounting and performance management and to optimize the ways and standards of subsidies.关键词
普惠托育/适龄儿童预测/供需缺口分析/保障路径Key words
inclusive childcare/appropriate-age children forecast/supply-demand gap analysis/guarantee path分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
茹玉..托幼一体化背景下普惠托育供需预测及保障路径探讨[J].人口与经济,2024,(6):41-53,13.基金项目
2020年北京市社会科学基金规划青年项目"供给侧改革下北京市学前教育财政投入的质量效益评价及优化方案设计"(20GLC047). （20GLC047）
