人口与经济Issue(6)：54-68,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2024.00.056
中国区域产业转移中人口规模的回旋作用
The Rotating Effect of Population Size in the Regional Industrial Transfer in China
摘要
Abstract
Under the negative population growth and the differentiation of regional population growth and decline,one of the driving forces of China's social and economic development in the future will come from industrial upgrading and the gradual improvement of the system,where the smooth transfer of industries between regions to achieve division of labor and cooperation is an important premise.So,what are the advantages of realizing industrial spatial transfer under the development trend of new population?Therefore,the potential index of population size and the degree of labor intensive,capital intensive and technology intensive industrial transfer between regions are calculated;Meanwhile,on this basis,the specific role of population size and local market capacity in domestic regional industrial transfer is empirically analyzed.The research conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the labor-intensive industries show a gradient transfer from east to west,in which the eastern capital-intensive industries show a trend of outward transfer from one or more central regions;Meanwhile,the technology-intensive industries show a trend of gathering and developing from the east.Secondly,regional population size is a significant factor affecting the transfer of labor-intensive and technology-intensive industries,but which has no significant effect on capital-intensive industries.Market capacity is a decisive factor for the transfer of capital-and technology-intensive industries,but has no significant effect on the transfer of labor-intensive industries.Thirdly,population size can promote industrial relocation by influencing local market capacity.Therefore,it is concluded that the huge population size has room for economic growth.In the future,we should stimulate the potential advantage of the huge population size from three aspects:population size,human capital and population agglomeration,and maintain sufficient market capacity.Then,through policy guidance and the role of the market to achieve industrial transfer between domestic regions,it is conductive to achieve regional industrial division of labor coordination,which can improve the level of regional industrial specialization,industrial efficiency and labor productivity,aiming to provide a strong driving force to achieve sustained economic growth.关键词
产业转移/人口规模/市场容量/回旋空间Key words
industrial transfer/population size/market capacity/wiggle room分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
王金营,史晓倩..中国区域产业转移中人口规模的回旋作用[J].人口与经济,2024,(6):54-68,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"中国经济实现发展的人口规模回旋空间及其作用研究"(19ARK002) （19ARK002）
国家社会科学基金重大项目"增强综合实力的中国人口长期发展战略研究"(21ZDA108). （21ZDA108）
