山东电力技术2024，Vol.51Issue(11)：61-73,13.DOI:10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.2024.11.006
基于扩展系统动力学模型的电力碳排放量预测方法
Carbon Emission Prediction Method for Power Sector Based on Extended System Dynamics Model
摘要
Abstract
In the context of"dual carbon",this article focuses on the main carbon emitting industry in China,the power industry,as the research object.Based on the stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology(STIRPAT)model,using ridge regression analysis,the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)test and analysis of the relationship between economic scale and power carbon emissions were carried out,and the system dynamics model was further constructed to simulate the carbon emissions of China's power industry from 2020 to 2040,and the peak time was predicted.If there is a peak inflection point in different schemes during this period,three different scenarios are set to explore the carbon neutral path of electricity under the premise of a fixed peak.The results show that the gross domestic product(GDP)index factor has the largest positive contribution to electric power carbon emissions,and the thermal power ratio index factor has the largest negative contribution to electric power carbon emissions.There is an"inverted U-shaped"relationship between the level of economic development and the carbon emissions of the power industry,which is in line with the EKC theory.Based on the current new policy efforts,China's power industry carbon emissions can achieve the goal of carbon peak before 2030,which is expected to peak in 2029,the peak range of about 4.9 to 5 billion tons.After the power industry completes the carbon peak in 2029,the power industry can achieve carbon neutrality in 2060 under scenario 3.Adjusting the power supply structure,strictly controlling the proportion of thermal power,optimizing the industrial structure,and popularizing carbon capture,utilization and storage(CCUS)technology will all contribute to the"dual-carbon"goal of the power industry.关键词
电力碳排放/STIRPAT模型/EKC/系统动力学/碳中和Key words
electric power carbon emission/STIRPAT model/EKC/system dynamics/carbon neutral分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李光肖,杨依路,刘宗杰,何召慧,孙文胜..基于扩展系统动力学模型的电力碳排放量预测方法[J].山东电力技术,2024,51(11):61-73,13.基金项目
国网山东省电力公司科技项目(520606230002). Science and Technology Project of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company(520606230002). （520606230002）
