实用休克杂志（中英文）2024，Vol.8Issue(3)：166-169,174,5.
急性爆发性心肌炎风险预测模型的开发与验证
Development and validation of a risk prediction model for acute fulminant myocarditis
摘要
Abstract
Objective Acute myocarditis is an acute inflammatory disease with diverse clinical manifestations.Some patients can rapidly progress to acute fulminant myocarditis,which has a high mortality rate.Therefore,early identification is critical for improving patient outcomes.Methods Clinical data from 204 patients diagnosed with acute myocarditis in the Emergency Department of Xiangya Third Hospital between January 2020 and December 2023 were retrospectively collected and randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 3:1 ratio.Independent predictors were identi-fied using multivariate logistic regression,and a nomogram model was constructed.The model's pre-dictive performance was evaluated using the ROC curve.Results Among the 204 patients,50(24.51％)progressed to AFM.Elevated serum BNP,reduced LVEF,and elevated CRP were identi-fied as independent predictors.The nomogram model demonstrated good predictive performance with an AUC of 0.949 in the validation set.Conclusions The nomogram model developed in this study ef-fectively predicts the risk of progression to AFM in patients with acute myocarditis and shows poten-tial for clinical application.关键词
急性心肌炎/爆发性心肌炎/列线图/预后预测Key words
Acute myocarditis/Fulminant myocarditis/Nomogram/Prognostic prediction引用本文复制引用
周文科,漆靖..急性爆发性心肌炎风险预测模型的开发与验证[J].实用休克杂志（中英文）,2024,8(3):166-169,174,5.基金项目
湖南省急危重症急救能力提升与突发公共卫生应急救治关键技术协同创新工程(项目编号:2020SK1010) （项目编号:2020SK1010）
