土木与环境工程学报（中英文）2024，Vol.46Issue(6)：80-88,9.DOI:10.11835/j.issn.2096-6717.2022.102
基于贝叶斯网络的深基坑承压水风险分析评价
Confined water risk analysis and evaluation in deep foundation pit based on Bayesian network
摘要
Abstract
In view of the existing problems of confined water risk analysis of deep foundation pit,such as single analysis method,insufficient risk prior assessment theory and lack of dynamic risk prediction during the construction process,this paper proposed a confined water risk analysis method of deep foundation pit based on Bayesian network(BN)to realize the pre-analysis of confined water risk accidents and the dynamic risk evaluation of the whole construction process.From aspects of environment,design,construction and management,the method established a risk evaluation index system of confined water of deep foundation pit,constructed static BN risk analysis model,and completed the risk probability prediction,accident factor diagnosis,disaster factor identification and other risk assessment contents in advance.On this basis,the dynamic risk analysis of confined water in the whole construction process based on monitoring data was realized by setting risk transfer nodes and observation nodes and introducing Noisy-Max hypothesis.Finally,taking the north deep foundation pit of Jingjiang Yangtze River tunnel project in Jiangyin as an example,the risk level of confined water in the project was analyzed,the related risk factors were further defined,and the dynamic risk change was accurately predicted.Results show that the proposed method has high applicability and can provide practical guidance for the safety of deep foundation pit construction.关键词
贝叶斯网络/承压水/条件概率/事前评估/动态风险Key words
Bayesian network/confined water/conditional probability/prior assessment/dynamic risk分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
马海洋,童立元,方若全,苏昂,吴烁,白坤..基于贝叶斯网络的深基坑承压水风险分析评价[J].土木与环境工程学报（中英文）,2024,46(6):80-88,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51878157、52178384) （51878157、52178384）
江苏省交通工程建设局项目(2021QD05)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51878157,52178384) （2021QD05）
Project of Jiangsu Provincial Traffic Engineering Construction Bureau(No.2021QD05) （No.2021QD05）
