亚热带植物科学2024，Vol.53Issue(4)：297-307,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-7791.2024.04.002
优良淀粉植物紫玉盘柯在中国的潜在适生区预测
Potential Suitable Area of the Starch Plant Lithocarpus uvariifolius in China
摘要
Abstract
Exploring the potential distribution range of Lithocarpus uvariifolius in China and its response to climate change is crucial for its cultivation and conservation.Based on 99 effective distribution points and 28 environmental variables of L.uvariifolius,we used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to simulate its potential habitat under current and three future climate change scenarios.We also investigated the main environmental factors that influence the geographical distribution of L.uvariifolius.The results indicated that:(1)The MaxEnt model was able to predict the potential distribution area of L.uvariifolius more accurately,with an AUC value of 0.988.(2)The distribution of L.uvariifolius was mainly affected by the precipitation in the coldest season(bio19),temperature seasonality(bio4),precipitation seasonality(bio15),elevation(elev),and annual precipitation(bio12).The precipitation factor had the largest combined contribution,which was a key factor affecting the distribution of L.uvariifolius.(3)Under the current climate,the total area of suitable areas for L.uvariifolius was 2.263×105 km2,accounting for about 2.4%of China's land area.(4)The total area of potential suitable areas for L.uvariifolius would increase significantly under future climate scenarios.It would obviously extend northward and westward,with a trend towards expanding to the high latitudes and high altitudes.(5)The distribution centers of L.uvariifolius were projected to migrate northwest to Hechi of Guangxi,under different future climate scenarios.关键词
紫玉盘柯/MaxEnt模型/潜在适生区/气候变化/环境因子Key words
Lithocarpus uvariifolius/MaxEnt model/potential suitable area/climate change/environmental factor分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
邵彦清,唐光大,陈雪仪,吴思霓,张世泓,吴玉芬,李玉玲,何春梅,罗晓莹,林杰妤..优良淀粉植物紫玉盘柯在中国的潜在适生区预测[J].亚热带植物科学,2024,53(4):297-307,11.基金项目
广东省林业局科技项目(2023KJCX001) （2023KJCX001）
广州市从化区野生动植物资源本底调查项目(h20230760) （h20230760）
