中国农业科学2024，Vol.57Issue(21)：4290-4307,18.DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2024.21.010
双碳目标下中国农食系统温室气体排放结构、发展趋势及国际比较
Structural Characteristics,Development Trends,and International Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China's Agri-Food System Under the Dual-Carbon Objectives
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study adopted a comprehensive industry chain perspective to analyze the characteristics,structure,and trends of greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural food system,contributing to the effective advancement of China's low-carbon strategy.[Method]Based on the latest statistics from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization,the statistical analysis,comparative analysis,and scenario analysis methods were used to analyze the trend and structural characteristics of greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural food systems of China,the United States,Western Europe,India,Brazil,and globally from 1990 to 2020.Scenarios(baseline,2℃temperature control,and 1.5℃temperature control)and specific stages were employed to predict China's agricultural food system greenhouse gas emissions in 2050.This analysis formed the basis for identifying key areas for emission reduction and outlining achievable pathways.[Result]Among the major economies mentioned,China was the only country with a significantly increasing per capita greenhouse gas emission in the agricultural food system,although it remained lower than that of developed economies.It was expected that,with the completion of industrialization,the advancement of low-carbonization in the energy industry,and increased difficulty in emission reduction in agricultural production,China's share of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural food system in the total societal emissions would initially decrease and then rise.In this context,the food consumption stage was the fastest-growing segment in China's agricultural food system greenhouse gas emissions,while the emission proportion from agricultural production was decreasing but still represented the largest share in the system.Unlike other major economies where enteric fermentation emissions were significantly higher,China's agricultural production greenhouse gas emissions showed a diverse pattern,including enteric fermentation,rice cultivation,fertilizer application,and energy utilization.[Conclusion]Future emission reduction efforts should focus on formulating comprehensive carbon-neutral strategies for the agricultural food system,low-carbonization of energy structures,promoting shifts in food consumption patterns,and advancing market-oriented emission reduction initiatives.关键词
农食系统/温室气体排放/结构特征/趋势/国际比较Key words
agri-food system/greenhouse gas emissions/structural characteristics/trends/international comparison引用本文复制引用
牛坤玉,葛若昊,陈美安,金书秦,刘静..双碳目标下中国农食系统温室气体排放结构、发展趋势及国际比较[J].中国农业科学,2024,57(21):4290-4307,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(72104239)、中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项项目(Y2022ZK03)、中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-ZK-06-2024,10-IAED-06-2024,10-IAED-SZD-01-2024) （72104239）
