大豆科学2024，Vol.43Issue(6)：758-767,10.DOI:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2024.06.0758
气候因子对东北地区大豆生产的影响效应分析
Analysis of the Impact of Climatic Factors on Soybean Production in Northeast China
摘要
Abstract
In order to quantitatively and dynamically assess the impact of climate factors on soybean yield,this paper selected the 10 days average temperature,10 days precipitation,10 days sunshine hours of 182 meteorological stations in Northeast China from mid-May to late September from 1980 to 2021,as well as the corresponding county(city)soybean production data.Based on the principle of orthogonal polynomial and integral regression,ten-day data were taken as the time scale.Dynamic assessment models of soybean yield based on climate factors were established,and the effects of climate factors on soybean production and their contributions were clarified.The results showed that during the vegetative growth period of soybean,the 10 days average temperature,10 days precipitation and 10 days sunshine hours had the greatest effect on the yield variability of soybean in northeast China.The 10 days average temperature had the greatest effect on soybean yield in Jilin province,ranging from-4.88 to 12.02 kg ha-1.The 10 days precipitation had the greatest effect on Liaoning province,ranging from-7.51 to 2.38 kg·ha-1.And 10 days sunshine hours had the greatest effect on Heilongjiang,ranging from-2.60 to 2.68 kg·ha-1.During the vegetative and reproductive growth of soybeans,the effect of 10 days average temperature on soybean yield in Heilongjiang province was significantly positive,while that on Jilin and Liaoning was significantly negative.The effect of 10 days precipitation in Heilongjiang and Liaoning was significantly negative,and the effect of 10 days sunshine hours in the three provinces was significantly negative.The effect of 10 days average temperature in Heilongjiang province was the greatest,ranging from 3.67 to 11.19 kg·ha-1.During the reproductive growth period of soybean,the effect of 10 days average temperature,10 days precipitation and 10 days sunshine hours on soybean yield was ranked as follows:The influence of 10 days average temperature on yield was the largest in Heilongjiang province,ranging was-11.20 to 7.11 kg·ha-1,and that of 10 days precipitation and 10 days sunshine hours was the largest in Liaoning province,the range was-6.66 to 2.84 kg·ha-1 and-2.66 to 1.49 kg·ha-1,respectively.It can be seen that the effects of climate factors on soybean production can be evaluated dynamically and quantitatively based on orthogonal polynomial and integral regression method,and the research conclusions can provide scientific basis for guiding soybean production.关键词
大豆生产/产量变率/气候影响/东北地区/积分回归/定量评估Key words
soybean production/yield variability/climate effect/northeast China/integral regression/quantitative assessment引用本文复制引用
赵放,林伟楠,赵春亮,何锋,孟祥龙,初征,李秀芬,赵慧颖..气候因子对东北地区大豆生产的影响效应分析[J].大豆科学,2024,43(6):758-767,10.基金项目
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所开放基金项目(2021SYIAEKFMS28) （2021SYIAEKFMS28）
黑龙江省自然基金项目(LH2020C105) （LH2020C105）
国家自然科学基金项目(31801253). （31801253）
