气候变化下野生大豆在中国潜在地理分布格局时空演化分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

Wild soybean(Glycine soja Siebold & Zucc.)is a closely related species and important germplasm resource of cultivated soybean.The stability of its genetic diversity and distribution pattern is directly related to the safety of soybean in China.Future climate change may have a certain impact on its distribution.Predicting the evolution of potential geographical distribution under climate change is of great significance for the protection of wild soybean resources in China.In this paper,ArcGis 10.8 and MaxEnt 4 software were used to analyze the geographical distribution characteristics of wild soybeans in China,and the potential geographical distribution changes under four carbon emission scenarios(sustainable development path SSP1-2.6,intermediate path SSP2-4.5,competitive path SSP3-7.0 and fossil fuel-based development path SSP5-8.5)in 2000-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080 and 2081-2100 were predicted.The results showed that:(1)The AUC value of MaxEnt model was 0.888,indicating that the model prediction results were good.(2)The optimum growth conditions were as follows:the precipitation in the wettest month was 150-350 mm,the isothermality was 20-27,the average temperature in the warmest quarter was 22-27.5 ℃,the seasonal variation coefficient of temperature was 745-910 and the precipitation in the warmest quarter was 375-625 mm.(3)In the future,the mid-high suitable areas may migrate to the southwest,the high suitable areas along the Bohai Sea may be greatly reduced,the Songliao Plain may also have a trend of reduction and fragmentation,and the distribution in Hunan may increase and concentrate.(4)Xinjiang Wenquan County,Habahe County,Inner Mongolia Abaga Banner and New Barag Right Banner may have suitable areas.This research can provide theoretical reference for the protection and comprehensive utilization of wild soybean resources in China,and put forward scientific suggestions for the future development of soybean industry in China.