大豆科学2024，Vol.43Issue(6)：782-792,11.DOI:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2024.06.0782
中国大豆生产时空演变格局的影响因素与优化对策研究
Influencing Factors and Optimization Countermeasures of Spatial and Temporal Evolution Patterns of Soybean Production in China
摘要
Abstract
In order to accurately grasp the evolution of spatial pattern of China's soybean production,identify the key constraints of soybean production,and improve the spatial layout of soybean,this study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of soybean production based on the provincial panel data of China's soybean production in the period of 1985-2022 by using ArcGIS and constructed the spatial Durbin model,empirically analyzed the influencing factors of the changes in spatial pattern of China's soybean production,and proposed countermeasures to optimize the spatial layout of China's soybean production.The results showed:(1)China's soybean production in general was a phased growth trend,and'regional concentration-national decentralization'characteristics of the distribution;(2)In the spatial pattern,China's soybean production was'concentrated in the northeast-southwest of the diffusion'trend,the high value of sown area area gradually shifted to the central and western regions;(3)The empirical results showed that the level of urbanization,total power of farm machinery per unit area,technology and policy factors had a significant effect on soybean production and the average rainfall,level of urbanization and policy factors had a positive direct effect on soybean production.It was thus proposed that the spatial layout of soybean production should be optimized by integrating the regional layout of soybean according to the law of evolution of soybean production pattern,strengthening the scientific and technological innovation capacity,improving the level of large-scale cultivation,and upgrading the capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation,and other policy recommendations.The results of the study are of great significance for guaranteeing China's food security.关键词
大豆生产/时空演变/影响因素/空间计量模型/空间相关性Key words
soybean production/time-space evolution/influencing factors/spatial measurement models/spatial correlation引用本文复制引用
李治,何小田..中国大豆生产时空演变格局的影响因素与优化对策研究[J].大豆科学,2024,43(6):782-792,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(20CJY054) （20CJY054）
河南省软科学研究计划项目(242400410591). （242400410591）
