干旱区研究2024，Vol.41Issue(11)：1842-1852,11.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2024.11.05
石羊河下游蔡旗站径流变化趋势及影响因素
Runoff trends and influencing factors at Caiqi hydrological station in the lower reaches of Shiyang River
摘要
Abstract
The lower reaches of the Shiyang River are the most serious resource-based water shortage areas,and water resources have a significant restraining effect on local social and economic development.Based on the run-off sequence data of the Caiqi hydrological station in Shiyanghe from 1956 to 2020,the sliding t-method,cumula-tive anomaly method,and M-K mutation test method were used to analyze the trend and abrupt year of runoff at the Caiqi hydrological station.The periodic change of runoff was analyzed using the Morlet wavelet method,and the factors influencing runoff change were analyzed by the double cumulative curve and correlation analysis methods.The results indicated that from 1956 to 2020,the annual runoff of the Caiqi hydrological station de-creased and then increased;the runoff in spring,summer,and autumn decreased first and then increased,while winter displayed a decreasing trend.The runoff of the Caiqi hydrological station was studied for 46 years as the main period,which existed during the whole study period,and the fluctuation of abundance and drought changed significantly.The runoff of the Caiqi hydrological station occurred in two apparent mutations in 1972 and 2010,and it decreased significantly after the first mutation and increased considerably after the second mutation.Under the background of regional climate change,human activities,such as land use change,cross-basin water diver-sion,adjustment of industrial and planting structures,and water conservation in irrigation areas,are the principal reasons for the runoff change at the Caiqi hydrological station.The results can provide a scientific basis for the river basin management department to formulate a rational water resource allocation and transfer plan.关键词
径流变化/Morlet小波/突变检验/气候变化/人类活动Key words
runoff changes/Morlet wavelet/mutation testing/climatic change/human activities引用本文复制引用
胡广录,樊亚仑,陶虎,李昊辰,杨鹏华..石羊河下游蔡旗站径流变化趋势及影响因素[J].干旱区研究,2024,41(11):1842-1852,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41867074,41561102) （41867074,41561102）
甘肃省水利厅水利科学试验研究技术推广项目(甘水建管发[2021]71号) （甘水建管发[2021]71号）
