摘要
Abstract
In 2024,international oil prices generally showed a downward trend with wide fluctuations.Wherein prices in the first half of the year fluctuated at medium-high levels under intensive geopolitical conditions and inadequate supply.In the second half of the year,especially in the third quarter,due to the downturn in the economies of major consuming countries and the fall in stock markets,resulting in weak growth in oil demand in China and the United States,low global refining margin,the easing of oil supply,and a sharp sell-offin macro funds and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds turned into a net short position for the first time.Based on the analysis of the main factors including the future macroeconomics,oil supply and demand,the inventories,and the finance,it is expected that the international oil prices operating pivot will be shifted downward and form a new fluctuation range in the fourth quarter of 2024 and even in 2025 and the main price range of Brent crude oil would be 65-80$/bbl in the coming year.It is recommended that oil and gas companies make good use of artificial intelligence,quantitative modeling,and other technical means to strengthen the research and judgment of oil price trends,actively respond to the reality that China's demand for refined oil products has reached its peak,make use of strategic reserves and other resources to balance the market and stabilize the price,and take advantage of hedging tools to hedge against the risk of large fluctuations in oil prices.关键词
国际油价/宏观经济/石油供需/库存/金融/地缘政治Key words
international oil prices/macroeconomics/oil supply and demand/inventories/finance/geopolitics分类
管理科学
