摘要
Abstract
China's natural gas market in the first three quarters of 2024 is stable and develops in good way,with incremental consumption exceeding the same period of the previous year,adequate supply of resources and overall loose supply and demand.Considering such factors as the economic level,temperature,gas price,and the impact of the Chinese New Year,the paper forecasts and analyzes such seven industries as residents,heating,public service,transportation,industrial fuel,power generation,and chemical industry using the consumption coefficient method,taking into account the monthly non-uniformity,at both the warm and extreme cold scenarios,it predicts the demand of China's natural gas market for the whole year of 2024 is expected to be 403.8 billion and 404.8 billion cubic meters,and the available market volume of natural gas is expected to reach 405.8 billion to 414.6 billion cubic meters with a loose supply and demand situation throughout the year.It also forecasts the overall supply of natural gas resources this winter and next spring is loose,but supply and demand tension may occur in high-month and high-day,and the regulating effect of imported LNG is more obvious since it is the most effective resource to alleviate the gas supply tension caused by extreme weather.关键词
天然气市场/采暖季/天然气需求/天然气供应/需求预测/供需关系/进口LNGKey words
natural gas market/heating season/natural gas demand/natural gas supply/demand forecasting/supply and demand relationship/imported LNG分类
管理科学
